After France lost to Spain

1. Core data on fan betting losses (capital gains and losses caused by France’s defeat)

1. Global funding base distribution

Before the match, across major global sports platforms, 58% of betting funds backed France to win, 32% backed Spain to win, and the remaining 10% backed a draw. France was the hottest team in the whole match, and a large number of French fans and fans who favored France had their entire principal wiped out.

2. Out-of-the-loop high-value winning tickets (fans who bet on Spain)

Largest single bet on the Polymarket platform

• Principal: $5.0914 million (about 34.47 million RMB), backing France failing to win (Spain wins)

• Settlement payout: $8.1384 million

• Net profit: $3.05M (equivalent to RMB 20.63 million)

Other well-known profitable retail bettors

1. $1.27M bet that the score would not be 2-1, netting RMB 959k;

2. $74k bet that Yamal would not score, netting RMB 26k.

3. Overall loss size for fans who backed France to win

1. Platform ratio: In Polymarket, the size of the liquidity pool for bets on France to win was about 1.8 times the pool for bets on Spain, meaning nearly 60% of fans’ principal was wiped out;

2. Odds reference: France win odds were 2.03, Spain win odds were 3.15. Institutions absorbed a large amount of France-side tickets before the match, and after the match they fully paid out the Spain-winning bet bonus;

3. No precise global total loss figure: Major betting platforms do not publish the complete total loss amount, but industry estimates put retail bettors’ total losses from backing France in this match at more than several hundred million dollars.

2. Distinction between two types of fans’ capital losses

1. French home fans
Large numbers of French fans bet on France to advance and to win. They not only lost their principal on the match outcome, but also all the long-term bets they had placed on France winning all the way through were rendered void. On top of that, there was additional spending driven by emotion (tickets, merchandise, watching-related expenses), making the overall loss even bigger.

2. Neutral/other-country fans
All pre-match bets favoring France to keep a clean sheet, win, and win big were lost, including multiple bet types such as moneyline, scorelines, Asian handicap, and total goals.

3. Additional losses outside the betting market (not betting, but “money taken away” from fans)

1. Fans who had prepaid France final tickets, final-week merchandise, and final viewing travel plans had their full orders canceled, with deposits/prepayments lost directly;

2. Refunds were issued on a large scale for French national team-related merchandise and pre-sale orders for the championship commemorative goods, and fans’ prepaid funds failed to return.

4. Supplementary notes

1. There is no “global total loss amount” precise down to the unit digit. Overseas betting platforms will not disclose complete transaction volumes; only the loss scale can be inferred from fund share and large-ticket bets;

2. France was the biggest hot favorite before this match, so the heat was concentrated. After the loss, the number of losing fans was far larger than the group that profited.