July 15 BTC/ETH Market Daily Report丨CPI ignites a rebound—these key levels below decide the fate of the shorts

“Jiangfeng Trading Diary” Episode 3—The biggest appeal of trading is also its uncertainty!

In yesterday’s Episode 2 strategy, the whole group collectively held the positions. Bitcoin’s shorts in the 63,300～64,600 range and Ethereum’s shorts in the 1,800～1,880 range are still being held! Note the level at 1,910—once price breaks through and holds above it, our air force will be hard to handle. If you get the chance to fully unwind, do it; but keeping safe comes first!

First, let’s talk about today’s view: Focus on resistance pressure in the 65,400～66,000～67,000 range. For ETH, watch resistance around 1910～1937～1970. If price absorbs the pressure, you can continue the game once more with a short!

The latest CPI data was released. Inflation cooled more than expected, causing the probability of a Fed rate hike in July to drop sharply from 42% to 17%. After the data was released, Bitcoin surged straight up from around $62,000, breaking through the $64,000 mark, and the high reached around 65,130. Ethereum performed even more strongly, reaching around $1,890. Honestly, I was quite surprised by how far below expectations this data came in. Since the price has already been pushed up and your position is holding, there’s no need for excuses—just be patient and hold!

Although the market has already sharply reduced expectations for a Fed July rate hike, the probability of a September rate hike is still as high as around 60%, according to the CME FedWatch Tool. With geopolitical tensions escalating rapidly right now, and judging from the economic data, this CPI reading is a bit too optimistic—so I still won’t blindly follow the surge to chase higher prices. Instead, I’ll wait for the market to test the resistance above again, and then make a decision!

BTC: Short-term CPI is favorable—shorts need to probe with light position sizing! Risk index 🌟🌟🌟☆☆

Enter short positions on the rebound around 65,400～66,000～67,000. Targets to watch: downside support around 64,500～63,600～62,000～60,000

ETH:

Enter short positions on the rebound around 1910～1937～1970. Targets to watch: around 1850～1800～1750～1700

With CPI favorable for the move, note that shorts need to participate with light position sizing. Keep the green mountains, and you won’t worry about running out of firewood! For the strategies that got trapped yesterday: if your position size isn’t heavy, keep holding. If your position size is heavy, once you can bring it down to the area to unwind and cut the position, then preserve your life and exit. If you have no positions in hand today, you can refer to the strategy!

Jiangfeng: Candlesticks and indicators are only the result of price—they’re not the cause of price.
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