7.14

After yesterday’s sharp rally and squeeze at the open, the market stayed bearish all day. On the daily chart, it rebounded from a high level, then fell back and closed with a long upper wick and a large bearish candle. Daily-level correction has started. Today’s correction will still continue: even if there’s a rise, it is highly likely to pull back. The rebound last night was weaker for the big BTC; it only reached the 30-minute resistance. The ETH (second coin) reached the 1-hour resistance. At this point, hesitating and moving forward is also a key moment. Waiting for a high-altitude (high-level) opportunity for another sharp rally. Combined with geopolitical factors and factors like the US CPI data, crypto risk assets are also under pressure, creating conditions for the bears. For today, the rebound height is only expected to be within the 1–2 hour resistance zones for now.

BTC: weak rebound; short on rallies. The overall market remains bearish. The 4-hour chart’s bearish trend is clear, and today’s price action is likely to drift downward with range movement. The probability of “rally then pull back” is higher. Even if it rises in one direction (not driven by news) it can still be a bull trap. Today, cycles under 8 hours are all forming rebound conditions at the bottom. There is also a chance of forming a minor multi-timeframe resonance long; however, for 12 hours and the daily chart, it is still a bearish cycle.

Support: 61,500-62,000, 60,600-61,000,
Resistance: 62,700-63,200, 63,500-64,000

ETH (second coin): rebound and then short. The rebound strength will be slightly stronger than BTC’s. Cycles under 8 hours are all forming rebound conditions at the bottom. The 12-hour and daily charts are still standard bearish cycles; even if there is bullish resonance below the 4-hour timeframe, it still creates conditions for shorting. Overall, the market is in a strongly bearish-leaning setup. On the 4-hour chart, the real body has already dropped below the Bollinger middle band; RSI, MACD, and KDj have all fallen into weak bearish oversold ranges. Today still needs a rebound-for-repair.

Support: 1,740-1,750, 1,725, 1,705,
Resistance: 1,790-1,800, 1,812-1,830, 1,850-1,870
‍#BTC