#非农爆冷打压加息预期

Key Contradiction: This Nonfarm Report Is Not Enough to Reverse the Fed’s Hawkish Stance

1. Wages and Inflation Remain Core Constraints
Growth in average hourly earnings stays elevated, and core CPI remains sticky; the Fed has stated clearly that if inflation does not cool down, it will not easily give up its tightening bias. Weak employment in a single month can only provide a short-term period of watchful waiting.

2. Employment Weakness Is Subject to Short-Term Seasonal Disturbances
The leisure and hotel industry saw a reduction of 61,000 jobs in a single month, which is a pullback after the earlier holiday season “overspend” rather than a sustained, broad-based industry contraction. Over the past three months, the Nonfarm average is still 111,000, meaning employment has not completely ground to a halt.

3. The Market Is Only Pushing Back Rate Hikes, Not Pricing in Rate Cuts
Traders are only postponing the timing of rate hikes, without betting on rate cuts this year; once CPI rises again, expectations for rate hikes will rebound quickly, and market sentiment for assets will reverse.