The group is spreading rumors about which stablecoin will depeg again, screenshots flying everywhere, but I'm too lazy to open them.

Anyway, every panic is pretty much the same. Those who run first are the smart ones, those who realize later are the bagholders, and those in the middle who follow trades... actually can't tell whether they are building positions or hedging.
I've followed whale addresses a few times, made money and lost money. Only later did I gradually understand that the same large transfer to an exchange could be a real sell-off or a hedging leg of options.
You look at on-chain data and think they are bullish, but maybe they are opening shorts to hedge.
Information is public, but intentions are encrypted. That's probably the romantic part—knowing you might misread, yet still wanting to try.
Now before following trades, I take a look at the volatility surface in the options market. When it's heavily skewed, there's a high probability that someone is buying insurance.
It's quite troublesome, but I can't help it. Who told me I'm into this kind of stuff.