#0成本拿2股SK海力士

$BTC Mainstream BTC Bullish Logic (June 2026)

1. Core Long-Term Cycle: Halving Deflation Logic

The total supply of Bitcoin is permanently capped at 21 million, with block rewards halving every four years, continuously compressing new supply; the current halving occurred in 2024. Historically, 1–2 years after a halving, major bull runs typically emerge. Institutions generally believe the halving dividend has not yet been fully realized, and long-term scarcity supports an upward shift in the value center.

2. Institutional Capital Long-Term Allocation

1. Existing funds in US spot BTC ETFs have accumulated over the long term; as of early June, consecutive days of outflows have ended, and selling pressure has been phased out;

2. Public companies (e.g., MicroStrategy) continue to accumulate BTC in batches as corporate asset reserves;

3. Multiple Wall Street institutions (Citi, VanEck, etc.) are bullish long-term, with a baseline 12-month target price of 100,000–140k USD and an optimistic scenario looking at 180k+ USD.

3. Macro Liquidity Easing Expectations

The market is betting on subsequent Fed rate cuts and US dollar liquidity expansion, leading to a general valuation uplift for risk assets; BTC is viewed by institutions as "digital gold," with its allocation attributes as a hedge against inflation and geopolitical uncertainty continuing to strengthen.

4. Short-Term Technical Signals (currently around 61,000–62k USD)

• Daily RSI has dropped into oversold territory, short-term selling momentum exhausted, creating demand for a technical rebound;

• Key support: 60,000, 57,500, 55,600 USD; short-term resistance: 63,500, 65,800 USD; a firm hold above 65,800 USD opens upside room;

• The network-wide mining hash rate remains at historical highs, with no risk of a fundamental breakdown in network security.

5. Overseas Regulatory Expectation Positive

The market is speculating on the passage of US crypto regulation bills and the expansion of spot derivatives, widening the channels for compliant capital inflows, and expectations of incremental capital support the bullish trend.

III. Major Downside Risks Corresponding to the Bullish Logic (Not to be Ignored)

1. Macro anti