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6.13 Auntie Market Sentiment | Weakness in tandem with the broader market, rebound lacks strength, prioritize shorting
$ETH
Currently, Auntie’s price is about 1664, generally following Bitcoin in a narrow correction phase after a sharp decline, with weaker performance than the market. Over the weekend, market liquidity contracted, market movements are highly correlated, with few independent trends. The long-term bearish structure has not yet reversed, so trading should mainly focus on shorting strategies.
Entry: Rebound around 1675-1685, with a target of 1720, watch for 1630-1600.
The US May CPI exceeded expectations, increasing the probability of a year-end rate hike to around 70%. The upcoming FOMC meeting on June 17-18 is a key risk point in the near term. Compared to Bitcoin, Ethereum faces greater funding pressure: spot Ethereum ETF continues to see net outflows, institutional funds have not yet shown a trend of inflow, and incremental buying is weak, which is the main reason why this rebound is weaker than Bitcoin.
The market’s expected network upgrade is likely delayed to Q3, lacking short-term independent bullish catalysts. Currently, the Auntie/Bitcoin exchange rate remains at low levels, reflecting that under macro uncertainty, funds prefer to seek safe haven in BTC. Ethereum has higher elasticity, but during declines, the drop is usually larger.
Daily level: Price is below all moving averages, which are arranged in a bearish pattern. The Bollinger Bands are opening downward overall, and the price is within a downward channel. RSI, although out of the oversold zone, has not crossed above the 50 line separating bullish and bearish. MACD bearish momentum is weakening but has not formed a golden cross for reversal. The current trend is only a weak correction after oversold conditions, not a trend reversal.
4-hour level: Price is consolidating within a narrow range of 1630-1720 USD, with MACD forming a short-term golden cross, indicating slight rebound momentum. However, there is heavy resistance from trapped longs and short positions above, and both the rebound space and sustainability are suppressed by the overall trend, making it difficult to develop an independent upward trend. #美PPI创两年半新高