The US-Iran conflict remains deadlocked, and the June policy meeting is approaching—when will BTC’s base-building finally break the stalemate?

🚨On June 12, the core market contradictions will break out intensively
The US and Iran have entered a confrontation and attrition phase. Shipping risks in the Strait of Hormuz remain. Oil prices continue to fluctuate at high levels, and inflationary pressures persist. With only 5 trading days left until the Fed’s FOMC meeting on June 17, market sentiment has entered an extreme wait-and-see period, and bullish and bearish funds have converged sharply.

📊Latest core data

1. U.S. initial jobless claims rose slightly. Combined with a rebound in energy inflation, stagflation expectations have once again picked up. CME’s interest rate tool shows the probability of a rate hike in September has risen to 11.2%, while expectations for rate cuts have been pushed back to the first quarter of next year.
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2. The redemption pace of BTC spot ETFs has slowed, but it remains in a net outflow state. Institutional funds are filled with a wait-and-see sentiment and do not dare to enter the market to buy the dip rashly.
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3. Live market: BTC’s current price is 62350U. It is experiencing narrow-range consolidation during the day. Over the past 24 hours, 97,000 traders across the entire network have been liquidated, with the shorts holding a slight advantage.

📌Key trading levels
🔹Short-term support: 61900U | Strong support: 60800U
🔹Short-term resistance: 63200U | Heavy overhead pressure: 64100U

💡Practical trading suggestions
Spot: Before the policy meeting, focus mainly on standing by. If BTC is below 60800U, gradually build positions in small size batches in BTC and ETH, and avoid “altcoins” without fundamental support.
Perpetuals: Strictly control leverage. In a range-bound market, prioritize high-sell and low-buy, and do not go heavy on bets for a single-direction trend.

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