At 09:05 Beijing time, $BTC perpetual quote is $61,940, $ETH perpetual quote is $1,645. Last night, the US market experienced another round of volatility, with BTC dropping to a low of $60,755 before being pulled back by funds, regaining above $61,900; ETH bottomed at $1,613, then rebounded to around $1,645. From the results, the bears failed to break below $60,000 by taking advantage of the dip, but the bulls also lack the strength to reclaim above $62,500, and the market is beginning to enter a typical narrow-range tug-of-war phase.

1. BTC: An initial bottoming pattern has formed on the 1-hour chart, but the final confirmation is still pending. From the 1-hour chart, BTC has been oscillating between 61,000 and 63,500 in recent days. After retesting $60,755 last night without making a new low, it closed with several small bullish candles, now back above the MA7 (61,877), indicating that funds are starting to support this level. According to the Chan theory structure, a complete downward move was formed from around 63,800, but after stepping on $60,755, no new accelerated decline occurred; instead, it started consolidating sideways. This looks more like building a small-term mid-range rather than initiating a new wave of sharp decline. However, the bottoming pattern has not yet confirmed a reversal, as the price has only just regained the MA7, while the MA25 (62,309) and MA99 (62,107) still hang overhead, and all three moving averages are still intertwined. Only if volume increases and the price reclaims above 62,300, taking out the MA99, will this small bottom on the 1-hour chart be truly confirmed.

One point worth noting on the MACD: DIF = -291.5, DEA = -308.4, both still below zero, but a golden cross has formed again, and the red histogram is starting to expand. This indicates that bearish momentum is weakening, but it’s not yet strong enough to support a trend; it’s more like a correction after an oversold condition.

2. ETH: Slightly weaker than BTC, with around 1640 becoming a short-term support. ETH’s structure this morning is similar to BTC’s but still lagging slightly. The current price is around 1,645, slightly below MA7 (1,647) and MA25 (1,660), but it has regained above MA99 (1,631). Looking at the trend, ETH has been moving sideways between 1,620 and 1,690 over the past two days, neither following BTC to break down nor showing independent bullish divergence. On the MACD, DIF = -7.53, DEA = -6.47, still below zero, but the two lines are beginning to converge, with the green histogram noticeably shrinking, indicating the previous correction momentum is waning. The KDJ indicator has also turned upward from low levels, showing some short-term recovery in sentiment. But one thing to admit is that ETH is still weaker than BTC. BTC has at least started to attempt to regain the moving averages, while ETH is still being held down by the MA25, mainly consolidating at the bottom. If BTC can push back above 62,500, ETH might have a chance to reach the 1680-1700 zone; otherwise, it’s likely to continue oscillating around 1640.

3. Why didn’t it continue falling today? Mainly for two reasons. First, there is indeed support around 60,000. Multiple retests have not broken below 60,800-61,000, indicating some medium-term funds are starting to position. The market fears a volume breakdown of support rather than repeated oscillation near support. Second, the market is waiting for news. Tonight, the US CPI data for May will be released, and early tomorrow, there will be the Federal Reserve rate decision and dot plot. Before these events, large funds usually avoid heavy positioning. The current market looks more like waiting for data to land rather than actively choosing a direction. So, the recent tug-of-war is essentially funds reducing positions and waiting for event-driven triggers.

4. Key levels to watch today:
BTC:
Support: 61,500-60,800 (last night’s low and recent support zone)
Strong support: 60,000 round number
Resistance: 62,100-62,300 (area where MA99 and MA25 overlap)
Strong resistance: 63,000-63,500 (upper boundary of this week’s range)
The biggest dividing line now is 62,300. Reclaiming it indicates this correction is basically over; failing to hold above it means further consolidation.

ETH:
Support: 1,630-1,640 (around MA99)
Strong support: 1,600-1,613 (last night’s low zone)
Resistance: 1,660 (MA25)
Strong resistance: 1,680-1,700 (this week’s pressure zone)
Today, ETH’s focus is whether it can hold at 1640; as long as it doesn’t break below, there’s potential for a rebound.

5. My thoughts:
At this level, I still won’t chase short positions. The past two days tested around 61,000 without breaking down, indicating the selling pressure is weakening. Plus, with CPI tonight and Fed tomorrow, betting on a one-sided move before the data is not cost-effective. I won’t rush into longs either. If BTC can stay steady around 61,500-61,800 and a new bottoming pattern appears on the 1-hour chart, with volume increasing and reclaiming above 62,300, I’d lean toward viewing these two days as a normal correction, with a chance to test 63,500 or even 64,000 later. But if tonight’s data surprises to the downside, causing BTC to break below 60,800 and close below 60,500 on the 1-hour chart, then we must accept a reality—that this rebound may be over, and the market needs to revisit the 60,000 bottom zone. The logic for ETH is similar: avoid chasing below 1650, look for support around 1630, and if it breaks below 1600, stay cautious.

In summary: the past two days saw the bears gaining strength, yesterday was the bulls resisting, and today looks more like waiting for news to land. The biggest focus now isn’t whether prices will rise immediately, but whether the support lines at 60,800 and 1,630 can hold. Holding them means the market is building a bottom; breaking below means a retest of the lows.