In the NFIB data, that 91 uncertainty index is the key point; geopolitical conflicts have mixed oil prices and supply chain risks together, freezing investment sentiment.

In May, the U.S. Small Business Confidence Index dropped to 95.3, although it remains above the 52-year average; the Uncertainty Index rose to 91, well above historical levels, indicating that inflation may stay high for some time. The plan to raise prices in the next three months increased to 34%, the highest since July 2022; about 36% of business owners said they would raise prices, the highest since March, up 6 percentage points from April. The reasons are the Iran war and its impact on global oil and commodities, with uncertainty still suppressing growth and investment.