What stage is the current bear market in? Has $BTC bottomed out? Based on historical data, it hasn't.

Starting from the all-time high, this bear market has lasted 245 days, and according to the "dip below previous high - 20% bear market line," it has been 207 days.
Compared to previous deep bear markets, it's still early:
2013 bull top: maximum retracement -84.7%, took 410 days from peak to bottom.
2017 bull top: maximum retracement -83.6%, took 364 days from peak to bottom.
2021 bull top: maximum retracement 76.7%, took 364 days from peak to bottom.
2025 bull top: currently only 51.2% maximum retracement.
When will the market turn bullish again? The generally accepted market consensus is:
First, see if $BTC can recover near the 200-day moving average at $78.3K, then see if ETF funds start to flow in continuously. Only when these two points are confirmed does the trend truly reverse; before that, it’s just a rebound.
Currently, the fear and greed index is at 9, indicating extreme fear. The recent 20 trading days, the net outflow of the US spot $BTC ETF reached about $5.25 billion.
Is now a good time for dollar-cost averaging? Let’s look at some main indicators:
✅AHR999 is 0.3, <0.45 indicates a buying opportunity at low prices, 0.45–1.2 is suitable for regular dollar-cost averaging, >1.2 suggests high prices and not suitable for trading; this signal indicates that this price is a high-value low zone for dollar-cost averaging.
✅MVRV is 1.176, calculated as market cap ÷ realized market cap; looking at $BTC , is the on-chain cost high or low? Currently, it’s undervalued.
✅NUPL is 0.15, representing unrealized profit and loss across the entire market; it shows the on-chain profit/loss of holders, currently in profit compression.
✅SOPR is 0.994, calculated as the selling price ÷ original cost; it indicates whether sellers are making money or losing money—currently in a loss turnover phase.
✅Puell is 0.537, an indicator of miner revenue; calculated as miner daily income ÷ 365-day average income; it shows the cycle of miner income—currently in a low-income zone.
It’s clear that we are in a deep bear phase. From a dollar-cost averaging perspective, all indicators reflect a very high cost-effectiveness for accumulation.
Next, continue to wait patiently, watch more, act less, and wait for the bull market to return.