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📊 CME's latest forecast: The probability of the Federal Reserve holding steady in June reaches 98.1%, and expectations of a rate hike in July are rising!
According to the latest data from CME's "Federal Reserve Watch," influenced by the previously strong non-farm payroll data, market expectations for Fed rate cuts have completely bottomed out:
* June decision: The probability of maintaining the current interest rate is as high as 98.1%, with only a 1.9% chance of a rate cut, making a hold this month a certainty.
* July outlook: The probability of keeping rates unchanged is 84.7%; notably, the combined probability of a 25 basis point rate hike has risen against the trend to 13.6%, while the chance of a rate cut has dropped to just 1.6%.
> 💡 Core logic: Rate cuts are completely unlikely this summer, and there are even "noise" about a rate hike in July. The macro high-interest-rate winter will continue, exerting ongoing liquidity pressure on the crypto market and tech stocks.
#美联储 #宏观经济 #降息预期 #CME观察 #加息风险 $BTC