Gao Zhikai predicts that a financial crisis will erupt in the future

$BTC Vice Director of the Globalization Think Tank, Gao Zhikai, has indeed issued multiple public warnings, believing that within the next 12 to 18 months (i.e., from the end of 2026 to the first half of 2027), the world is highly likely to experience an unprecedented scale financial crisis, with destructive power potentially reaching ten times that of the internet bubble burst in 2000.

Based on multiple sources of information, Gao Zhikai's core logic for this prediction mainly relies on the accumulation of the following three systemic risks:

1. Out-of-control U.S. debt and the approaching limit of the "Ponzi cycle"
Gao Zhikai pointed out that the U.S. national debt has exceeded $39 trillion, accounting for 127% of GDP. More severely, in 2026, U.S. interest payments on debt are expected to reach between $1.12 trillion and $1.23 trillion, surpassing its defense budget for the first time. As nearly $10 trillion of low-interest old debt matures, the U.S. must borrow at over 4% interest to roll over the debt, causing financing costs to spike. Meanwhile, major creditor countries like China and Japan continue to reduce their holdings of U.S. debt, further exacerbating liquidity risks.

2. AI industry bubble detaching from the real economy
Gao Zhikai believes that the current U.S.-led AI development model is the core trigger of the crisis. He warns that the current AI boom is essentially a "bookkeeping game," where tech giants artificially inflate valuations through mutual investments and circular transfers. Data shows that the five major tech giants have invested a total of $560 billion in AI, but their actual revenue is only about $35 billion, resulting in a severely unbalanced input-output ratio (up to 16:1). If AI technology cannot truly empower the real economy and realize profits, this high valuation bubble detached from fundamentals could burst, triggering a global chain reaction.

3. Geopolitical conflicts catalyzing energy and economic crises
Gao Zhikai emphasizes that geopolitical conflicts such as those involving Iran are important catalysts. If conflicts lead to the substantial closure of the Strait of Hormuz, it will block about 20% of global oil transportation, triggering a worldwide energy crisis. The surge in energy prices will push up global inflation, squeeze the Federal Reserve's policy space, and form a vicious "energy-economy-finance" transmission chain.

However, Gao Zhikai also clearly states that even without the catalytic effect of geopolitical conflicts, the internal structural contradictions such as debt expansion and AI bubbles are sufficient to trigger this crisis.

In response to this potential crisis, Gao Zhikai advises ordinary people to stop leveraging and speculating on high-valued assets, re-examine household cash flow, and ensure that they can maintain basic living standards even if income is interrupted for six months, thereby enhancing their risk resistance.