Updated Views on Gold (Including Technical Indicators and Stop-Loss Logic)

$XAU $XAUT $PAXG

$4,200 is the next key level for gold. The current gold-to-oil ratio is around 45 and is slightly declining. There are only two possible paths ahead: either gold prices fall slightly while oil prices surge significantly, or gold sees a sharp pullback. Only one of the two can happen.

Technical reference:
On a daily timeframe, RSI has fallen from the overbought zone back to around 50. If it continues lower and goes below 40, it will be a signal window for adding positions on the left side. At the same time, watch the daily MA60 (around 4,250) and MA120 (around the 4,100 area)—these levels often provide strong support. After a sharp selloff, the daily chart will very likely form a double-bottom structure. If the second bottom comes with reduced volume during the stop and an RSI bullish/bearish divergence at the bottom, the reliability is higher.

Trading plan:
In the future, add positions in batches at 4,300 → 4,200 → 4,100. Although it’s uncertain whether gold will drop to $4,100, you must reserve position capacity for this level in advance.

Stop-loss logic:
After adding positions on the left side, if the closing price effectively breaks below $4,050 (i.e., 50 points below $4,100), it will be treated as a breakdown of the structure. It is recommended to cut losses or reduce most of the positions and wait for a renewed stabilization. The interval between each batch of adding is $100, and each single batch’s position size must not exceed 20% of the total gold position. After the second bottom on the right side is confirmed, you can top up the remaining positions.

Adding positions during the sharp drop on the left side is a high-risk, high-reward approach—you can add partially, and then patiently wait for the second bottom to complete the remaining positions.
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