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I look at whether a project is serious about doing the work, and I don't pay much attention to their milestone slogans, but more to how the treasury is spent: whether the money is used to support a bunch of “partners” issuing press releases, or if there are ongoing signs of delivery (code updates, documentation, proposal discussions, how quickly bugs are fixed). Milestones shouldn't just say “Launch in Q3,” it’s better to break them down into smaller, verifiable steps; otherwise, it just looks like a cover-up for delays.
Recently, Layer2 has been competing in TPS, costs, and subsidies, and it's been quite lively, but I'm more concerned about what remains after the subsidies stop, and whether the treasury can sustain long-term. Anyway, my approach is: keep the position small, set stricter slippage limits, and wait until they align the “spending rhythm” with the “delivery rhythm.” The market is like a mirror— the more impatient you are, the more it tends to go against you.