A couple of days ago, ZEC was falling hard—dropping straight from over $600 to $317. It fell by 50-plus points in a single day, making your heart race. But today it has climbed back up; it’s around $375 now. Even the 24-hour low went as low as $250—this “deep V” move really has something to it.

To put it simply, this rebound isn’t surprising. If it drops that much, it has to bounce at some point. The key question is: how high can it bounce?

First, let’s look at what happened. A few days ago, ZEC disclosed a serious privacy vulnerability. The most fatal part is that nobody could confirm whether the vulnerability had actually been exploited. That kind of uncertainty is scarier than a confirmed bearish hit—the market’s biggest fear is not knowing. So that wave of panic selling was largely driven by emotion.

What’s interesting, though, is that some big players didn’t run. The Winklevoss brothers and Barry Silbert from Grayscale even came out publicly to support Zcash, saying the team is handling it appropriately. Cypherpunks were even more explicit that they plan to continue holding, with the goal of reaching 5% of the total ZEC supply. And some large holders also quietly accumulated shares while the price was retracing.

You could say these signals don’t matter—they don’t change the facts. But in reality, they did give the market half a dose of reassurance. You could also say they do matter, but the privacy vulnerability issue hasn’t really been put to rest, and the sword hanging over everyone’s head hasn’t been truly removed.

On the technical side, MA7 is at $509 and MA25 is at $557—these two lines are pressing down firmly. Today’s rebound is more of a technical repair after being oversold, not a trend reversal. I think that as price moves up, around $500 will be a strong psychological level and a technical resistance point. Once it reaches that level, the short-term funds that should take profit will take profit, and those looking to get back to even will also exit.

So my view is simple: the rebound will likely push a bit higher again, and around $500 is a reasonable target range for this bounce. But after it gets there, without stronger positive news to carry the momentum, it will likely drift down slowly from there—an “all the way down, slowly” kind of grind.

Right now, there are two variables: first, whether that privacy vulnerability will blow up with new bad news again; second, whether these big players’ “confidence calls” can truly translate into sustained buying pressure. As of now, the former could explode at any time, while the latter has already been digested about as much as it can.

Overall, for short-term trades, you can bet on the rebound—but don’t get greedy. If it reaches around $500, you should leave. For the medium to long term, wait until this emotional stir has settled down. $ZEC ‌#预测NBA总冠军赢20,000U