Wu said that Galaxy Research research director Alex Thorn stated that the probability of the U.S. CLARITY Act passing in 2026 has been lowered from 75% to 60%. He pointed out that the Senate schedule remains one of the main obstacles to the bill's progress, and recent developments have further worsened the situation. Due to the FISA (Foreign Intelligence Surveillance Act) extension authorization vote not passing, next week's Senate agenda is expected to be occupied by related issues. Additionally, this week there has been little progress on resolving longstanding disputes over legislative ethics rules and anti-money laundering measures. Thorn said that although he remains optimistic about the bill's eventual passage, the legislative time window is becoming increasingly critical, and the subsequent probability of passage may fluctuate significantly with changes in the congressional schedule.

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DeltaSmile
· 4h ago
75% adjusted to 60%, this difference is much gentler than I imagined
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EvenRocksNeedLiquidity
· 4h ago
Optimistic as it may be, 60% still means a 40% failure rate; you need to keep an eye on the schedule.
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DustyAirdropper
· 4h ago
The time window is tightening; the next two months will be critical.
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Rain-SoakedGlassLeverage
· 4h ago
The failure to extend FISA directly crowds out the agenda, with the battle over legislative priorities more exciting than the bill itself.
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BerryColdWallet
· 4h ago
The Senate schedule's old problem, the encryption bill gets stuck here year after year.
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