Yesterday is the rhyming script of the historical coincidence mentioned by Rekt Capital about the 200-week moving average:

On June 13, 2022, BTC first touched the 200-week moving average during a bear market;
And in 2026, BTC nearly revisits the 200-week moving average again around the same time four years later.
Looking back at history:
▪️ In 2018, after touching the 200-week moving average, it traded sideways for months to start a new cycle
▪️ In 2022, after touching the 200-week moving average, despite experiencing the FTX explosion and hitting new lows, it ultimately confirmed the bottom area
▪️ Historically, every time it approaches the 200-week moving average, it is a long-term value zone, not a risk zone
But we need to pay attention:
The 200-week moving average is usually a “value bottom,” not necessarily a “price bottom.”
After 2018, the market traded sideways for about 4 months;
After 2022, the market experienced the last panic flush.
Referring to the previous two cycles:
📊 approximately 55% chance: the current area has entered the bottom zone, with sideways consolidation in the coming months
📈 approximately 30% chance: it is close to this cycle’s bottom, gradually starting a new rally
📉 approximately 15% chance: a new black swan event occurs, forming the final bottom
History doesn’t simply repeat, but it often rhymes.
So the core question is: 👀
“Is this the lowest point?”
“Looking back in four years, is this area cheap enough?”
#Bitcoin # crypto
Analysis source