🚨The Bank of Japan just issued its most direct rate hike warning of 2026.

In a speech delivered this morning, Governor Ueda said the BOJ is now more concerned about inflation running too hot than it is about the economy slowing down.

That is a significant statement from a central bank that spent decades fighting deflation.

Here is exactly what he said.

Japan's CPI is projected to hit 2.8% this fiscal year and rise above 3% for a period. The Producer Price Index hit 4.9% year on year in April, the highest reading in nearly 3 years.

Upstream price increases are already spreading into plastic products, construction, transport, and food. Wages are rising at 5% for the third consecutive year.

Inflation expectations among firms and households are both moving higher.

Ueda explicitly stated that if upside risks to prices continue to outweigh downside risks to the economy, the BOJ will raise rates.

Real interest rates in Japan are still negative despite three hikes since 2024. The policy rate currently sits at 0.75%.

A move to 1% at the June 15-16 meeting is now widely expected.

This matters far beyond Japan.

For decades global investors borrowed money in Japan at near zero interest rates. They then took that borrowed money and invested it into higher yielding assets around the world, US stocks, tech stocks, emerging market bonds, and crypto.

The trade generates profit as long as Japanese borrowing costs stay low.

When the BOJ raises rates, the cost of borrowing in yen goes up. That forces investors to close those positions selling US stocks, selling crypto, selling emerging market assets and converting the proceeds back into yen to repay their loans.

The selling happens fast and across every market simultaneously.

In August 2024 the BOJ raised rates by just 0.15%. Within 48 hours the Japanese stock market posted its single largest one day crash in history. Global equities, crypto, and emerging markets all sold off violently. That was just 0.15%.

The expected June move is to 1%, from 0.75%. That is a larger move in a market that is already under significantly more stress than August 2024.

The global carry trade built on near zero Japanese rates is estimated at over $4 trillion.

At the same June meeting the BOJ will also conduct an interim assessment of its bond purchase reduction plan and announce a new guideline for 2027.

Reuters reports that a full pause to QT is the preferred option internally. If the BOJ raises rates and pauses QT simultaneously it means tighter monetary policy through rates but continued bond market support, a direct acknowledgment that Japan's bond market cannot yet stand on its own.

The June 15-16 BOJ decision, whether it hikes, how much, and what it decides on QT will be the single most important data point for global risk assets in the weeks ahead.