From a macro perspective, the Federal Reserve is slowing the pace of interest rate cuts, dollar liquidity is tightening, and Bitcoin, as a high-volatility risk asset, is the first to be affected. On-chain data shows that long-term holders (whales) are quietly distributing, exchange reserves are rising, and selling pressure is increasing. Technically, BTC has failed multiple times to break through $70k, forming a double top pattern. Once the $67,000 support level is broken, there is significant downside potential. Coupled with the risk-averse sentiment driven by global geopolitical conflicts, which favors the dollar over the crypto market, this bull run has shown signs of fatigue. A correction to $50k or even lower is only a matter of time. It is recommended to short on rallies and strictly control leverage.