Someone asked me recently if the increase in stablecoin supply means that ETFs are pouring money in and it's about to take off... I can only say don't confuse correlation with causation. A few more zeros on the chain might be due to market making, cross-exchange arbitrage, or people just moving to stablecoins to avoid volatility, it doesn't necessarily mean "new off-exchange funds." The same goes for ETFs; even if the net inflow looks exciting, how the money is allocated, whether there's hedging, or if old positions are just being shuffled around, isn't so straightforward.

When I review things myself, I tend to look at "timing" and "sentiment" together: during the same period, stablecoins rise but spot prices don't follow, and implied volatility in options actually increases, which usually reminds me not to get too excited. By the way, about the main public chain's upgrade/maintenance, people guess whether projects will migrate or not, but I'm more concerned about whether liquidity will break during the upgrade, so that when sentiment tightens, slippage could be worse than you think. That's all for now, being cautious is never wrong.