Lately, I keep seeing people staring at whale addresses and wanting to copy their trades. To be honest, you need to first figure out whether they are building a position or hedging; otherwise, following along and buying in might just expose you to their risk. On-chain tagging/data tools have also been criticized recently for being laggy and still susceptible to "staging," and I believe it: change the address, split it into several parts, and what you see is already the second half of the script.

I personally view whale movements mostly as a mood thermometer: whether the same source of funds is continuously flowing in, whether they are simultaneously adding margin to derivatives, whether spot assets are being deposited into exchanges—these are more like "position management," not necessarily directional bets.

By the way, my definition of "long-term" isn't that grand: on-chain, I usually consider a quarter as long-term, monthly as mid-term, and weekly as noise. Don't rush to learn from whales; first, figure out your own risk exposure clearly. Anyway, I've learned my lesson from losing money, so I just stay honest.