#TradFi交易分享挑战

#WTI原油失守90美元

June Crude Oil Market Outlook

With the blockbuster drama of the "Memorandum of Understanding Rashomon" directed by the US and Iran in full swing, crude oil prices fell below $90 at the end of May, closing at $88.5. Looking ahead to June's crude oil market, I believe the story between the US and Iran won't have a quick ending, and prices will mainly fluctuate within a wide range.

First, the most direct factor affecting oil prices is the US-Iran conflict. I think although there are reports of a memorandum of understanding being reached, both sides are still in a tug-of-war stage. On one hand, the versions of the memorandum disclosed by the US and Iran differ significantly, reflecting that their core demands are still far apart at this stage. However, as I mentioned before, the current deadlock is difficult for both sides to accept. Therefore, I believe there is a high probability that the US and Iran will reach an agreement before the end of June. Currently, it is a process of bargaining for their respective final interests before an agreement is reached, so this pattern of negotiations and talks will continue for some time. Under these circumstances, the likelihood of oil prices fluctuating within a range is very high.

Additionally, although short-term geopolitical negotiations have temporarily pressured international oil prices due to supply-demand imbalances, from a fundamental supply and demand perspective, the crude oil market does not have a basis for sustained decline. On the supply side, global crude oil supply elasticity is limited. Wang Yingmin stated that previously, disruptions in the Strait of Hormuz caused unprecedented shocks to the global crude oil industry, directly changing the supply pattern of the global oil market. OPEC data shows that in April, OPEC member countries reduced their crude oil production by nearly 10 million barrels per day compared to February; IEA data also indicates that global oil supply has decreased by about 13 million barrels per day due to this conflict, with Gulf countries reducing their oil output by 14 million barrels per day compared to before the conflict. Moreover, Russian oil facilities were attacked by drones, leading to a 300k barrel per day decrease in April production month-on-month. If such attacks continue, their output could decrease another 500k barrels per day in the second half of the year.

In summary, crude oil prices in June are initially expected to fluctuate within a wide range. Traders can consider high selling and low buying around the 85-95 dollar range, engaging in swing trading. I believe the returns will be good. Wishing everyone daily prosperity! $MU