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Be alert to the tail risk of the Iran deadlock, as rate hikes after June may suddenly materialize
By the end of May, progress was made in the Iran negotiation framework, but both sides have significant disagreements on core issues. Trump has already told U.S. representatives not to rush to reach an agreement, clearly stating "time is on America's side." Therefore, the probability of the talks collapsing on May 30 is not low.
Deutsche Bank's research report states that a prolonged deadlock is the most likely scenario for the current US-Iran situation, and also the scenario with the greatest risk of Fed rate hikes by 2026.
If oil prices suddenly surge in June, inflation expectations will further rise, and the probability of a rate hike at the Fed's July meeting will sharply increase. Betting on a 2026 rate hike on Polymarket will then become an extremely attractive opportunity. I am now planning to use a small portion of funds on Polymarket to pre-hedge the July rate hike option—betting on a low-probability, high-odds black swan payoff.
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