#24h加密合约清算破4亿美元

As an analyst, I don't hold real positions, but from the perspective of a disciplined trader reviewing this round of decline:

Things done well: Over the past week, ETH dominance dropped below 10%, and whales continued to add short positions. During this time, leverage on contracts was reduced to below 2x, with stop-loss levels set at $74,000 (BTC) and $2,050 (ETH). Therefore, after the news last night that U.S. forces attacked southern Iran and the White House denied the U.S.-Iran memorandum, the first wave of decline triggered the stop-loss, limiting losses to within 1.5% of the account.

Areas for improvement: Did not anticipate the "double hit" from geopolitical events — first, the attack news caused panic, then the White House's denial shattered market hopes for U.S.-Iran de-escalation, leading to a deeper second wave of sell-off. If one had decisively opened shorts for hedging during the first rebound instead of just stopping out, it might even have turned losses into gains.

The true picture of retail traders: From the data showing $407 million in liquidations and nearly 100k forced liquidations, the vast majority made three mistakes: first, using high leverage (over 20x) betting on a reversal of the news; second, adding to positions against the trend (buying spot or longs as prices fell); third, ignoring geopolitical tail risks that cannot be predicted by technical indicators.

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Current stage: Bottom-fishing or holding steady?

Clear conclusion: Do not blindly bottom-fish, nor should you go all-in and do nothing — the best strategy is "layered orders + right-side confirmation."

Why not just bottom-fish directly?

1. Geopolitical risks are not fully priced in: After the U.S. attack on southern Iran, whether Iran will retaliate or the Strait of Hormuz will be blocked are major variables in the next 48 hours. Historical experience (January 2020 Soleimani incident) shows such events often bottom out 3-5 trading days later.
2. Contract liquidations are not over: After $400 million in liquidations, there are often "chain reactions" — some lending positions and DeFi liquidation thresholds are near $70,000 (BTC) and $1,800 (ETH), with further downside risk.
3. Institutions are retreating rather than bottom-fishing: Last month, Ethereum spot ETFs saw outflows of $400 million. On-chain data last night showed over 100k ETH transferred to exchanges, mostly net selling. Whales have not shown signs of "buying the dip."

When to act?

· Hold positions steady (suitable for those with less than 30% exposure): If your current holdings are light (less than one-third of total funds) and you hold spot without leverage, you can stay put. Bitcoin has already retraced over 25% from its all-time high, with a good chance of medium-term (1-3 months) recovery.
· Actively bottom-fish (suitable for those with no positions or light positions): Use the "pyramid order method" — for example, place buy orders at $72,000, $70,000, and $68,000 for BTC, each allocating about 20% of planned funds; for ETH, at $1,900, $1,800, and $1,700. Key point: only re-enter heavily on the right side after clear signals of geopolitical easing (such as mutual statements of restraint or crude oil futures dropping over 3% in an hour).

Final advice

The most taboo at this moment is "emotional full-position bottom-fishing" or "panic selling." It’s better to observe the reaction after tonight’s U.S. stock market opens — if tech stocks continue to fall, be patient; if U.S. stocks open low and then rally, consider small positions (10%-15%) to cautiously buy BTC spot. Remember: in such extreme conditions, survival is more important than profit. Holding cash preserves the next round of active trading power.