Hot warning: During last month’s derivatives expiration day for May (21/05), did you notice anything unusual? The VN30 market was again strongly “shaking” at 2:00 PM, just like every month. This is exactly why I want to share this article—to help you understand the mechanism of derivatives expiration days more clearly, because it will continue to repeat every month.

What is a “derivatives expiration day”? Simply put, it is the last day when VN30 futures contracts (code VN30F1M) must be “settled”—all open Long/Short positions that haven’t been closed will have their profit/loss automatically calculated based on the closing price. Typically, it falls on the third Thursday of each month, but sometimes it is adjusted due to the holiday calendar.

Remember last Lunar New Year (13/02/2026)? Since the derivatives expiration day coincided with the 3rd day of Tet, it was moved earlier to Friday, 13/02. At that time, there was double pressure: it was both an expiration session and the last session before a long holiday. Liquidity fluctuated, margin interest increased sharply, and those “big whales” (large funds) took the opportunity to “stir up” the index. Anyone who wasn’t prepared carefully could end up with their account wiped out.

The derivatives expiration schedule for the whole year 2026 looks like this: January is 15/01 (already passed), February is 13/02, March is 19/03, April is 16/04, May is 21/05, June is 18/06 (extremely important because it’s the end of the quarter), July is 16/07, August is 20/08, September is 17/09, October is 15/10, November is 19/11, and December is 17/12 (closing NAV at year-end—also very dangerous). Memorize these dates so you won’t be “caught off guard.”

Why does the market get “crazy” on derivatives expiration day? There are 3 main reasons. First is Arbitrage (price arbitrage)—when futures prices are much higher than the underlying price, large funds will Short the futures and Buy VN30 to lock in profits from the price discrepancy. When expiration comes, they sell VN30, creating massive selling pressure. Second is Rollover (position rollover)—institutional investors must close this month’s position and open next month’s position, generating huge trading volume. Third is that Market Makers adjust the index by “pulling/dumping” major stocks (VCB, VHM, VIC, MSN...) to benefit their derivatives positions.

I have 3 strategies for you depending on your risk appetite:

First: “The Safe Haven” (Trú Ẩn An Toàn)—for beginners. The action is very simple: close all derivatives positions before 11:30 AM on the derivatives expiration day. That way, you completely avoid the afternoon session volatility and the ATC session. The benefit is preserving the profits you’ve already earned, with a relaxed mindset. This approach isn’t flashy, but it’s safe.

Second: “Basis Hunter” (Săn Chênh Lệch)—for pro traders. You track Basis (the difference between futures price and VN30 price) over the 3 days before the derivatives expiration day. If the Basis is too positive (>10 points), open a Short position—the convergence rule back to 0 will help you profit. If the Basis is too negative, do the opposite. The win probability is usually above 70%, but it requires skill to execute.

Third: “Surfing the Wave” (Lướt Sóng ATC)—for “suicide traders.” Watch the money flow into the large-cap stocks at 14:15. If you see big buy orders into VCB, VHM (big players pushing the index), go Long to chase. If you see heavy selling, go Short to chase. This is a double-edged sword—only for experienced people.

But a warning: During the derivatives expiration week, reduce your trade size. Normally you trade 10 contracts, but during this week you should only trade 3–5. Intraday volatility can repeatedly trigger stop-losses.

Mistakes you need to avoid: First, don’t fail to close positions because of “forgetting.” If you don’t close, the system will automatically settle at the ATC price, and if the price gets “pushed to the floor” or “pushed to the ceiling” then, you could have your account wiped out in a matter of seconds. Second, don’t rely too mechanically on technical analysis—RSI, MACD, MA often get “broken” on derivatives expiration days, and price may break through fake support/resistance only to reverse immediately. Prioritize observing Price Action and Volume of the VN30 basket. Third, go All-in during the ATC session—this is gambling; no one can predict 100% of the intentions of the market makers.

In summary: Derivatives expiration day is an inevitable part of the financial game. For beginners, it’s a high-risk day. But for those with knowledge, it’s an opportunity to profit from price discrepancies and the crowd’s panic. Get your knowledge ready now—don’t let the market decide your account’s fate. Are you ready for the June derivatives expiration day?