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The US-Iran negotiations still have unresolved disagreements,
but the war has almost been declared over.
Based on the current information released,
the core disagreements still stand like an iceberg in the middle:
On May 23, U.S. President Trump publicly stated that the US and Iran had basically agreed on a deal including the reopening of the Strait of Hormuz.
However, Iran's Supreme National Security Council explicitly stated on May 27 that "the two sides have not reached an agreement on the Strait of Hormuz issue."
Iran is currently bypassing the US and negotiating a brand-new vessel passage mechanism with Oman, aiming to firmly hold control of the strait.
While negotiations are ongoing, both sides are using limited military actions to add chips to the bargaining table. The Iranian Revolutionary Guard announced on May 26 that it shot down a US military drone in retaliation for the previous self-defense micro-attack on its missile bases and mine ships.
Iran has also set three hard conditions for the negotiations:
Money: Iran demands the unfreezing of approximately $24 billion in overseas assets, releasing half ($12 billion) immediately upon signing the memorandum of understanding, with the rest returned within 60 days.
Comprehensive Ceasefire: In the first phase of the preliminary agreement, the US must commit to a 60-day comprehensive ceasefire on all fronts, explicitly including Lebanon.
Nuclear Issue Separation: Iran firmly refuses to discuss its highly enriched uranium stockpiles during this negotiation, and the nuclear issue is indefinitely postponed until the war is completely over.
The next negotiation is scheduled for Friday, and Trump is likely to release many favorable signals, while Iran will also send signals of victory:
The White House now urgently needs to see oil prices fall and inflation cool down.
Iran is currently trying to redefine the Strait as its own territorial waters and is attempting to collect so-called protection fees from passing ships. For Trump, this is akin to signing off on a protection racket, which is absolutely political suicide because the US has made it clear that it resolutely opposes any fee mechanisms.
Neither side is truly negotiating for peace; everyone is fighting for cash flow and time for their next crisis.