Internal Iran Turmoil: President Says "No Nuclear Weapons," Supreme Leader Says "Uranium Won't Leave"

The biggest variable in US-Iran negotiations isn't between Washington and Tehran, but within Tehran itself. On May 24, Iranian President Raisi gave an official media interview, clearly stating that Tehran is "ready to assure the world that it is not seeking nuclear weapons." This is a rare and clear stance at the presidential level, signaling strong negotiation sincerity.

But just two days earlier, the Supreme Leader had issued a completely opposite order: highly enriched uranium close to weapon-grade must stay inside Iran, and not be exported at all. This is a direct rejection of Trump's demand to "hand over enriched uranium." On the same day, Iran's ambassador to China publicly expressed hope that China could become a security guarantor for regional peace, while Moojtaaba also ordered—nuclear energy and missile technology are national assets; no one is allowed to use them for negotiations.

The question is: who does Iran listen to?

The president wants to reach an agreement because sanctions have already crippled Iran's economy. But the Supreme Leader holds the final decision on nuclear issues and national security. The moment the president publicly says "no nuclear weapons," the Supreme Leader immediately counters with the order "no uranium export." This power structure ensures Iran's negotiation stance will continue to sway—if the president makes a concession, the Leader will push further.

More critically, media reports reveal that the Supreme Leader hides in a secret location, rarely contacts the outside world, and issues commands through a "messenger network." If he says "no deal," even the president can't find him to persuade him. Signing an agreement requires the Supreme Leader's final approval, but now even the approval process might take several days.

Probability of reaching an agreement before the end of May? If internal power struggles are not resolved, Iran cannot give a "final answer" for a day. My prediction: no more than 30%, betting "no." #Polymarket每日熱點