I have noticed that the price of a barrel of oil today in dollars has been showing interesting movement lately. WTI crude is moving around $72, and several factors are pushing it up and down at the same time.

The main issue now is what is happening in the Middle East. The situation there has escalated sharply — coordinated military strikes on Saturday resulted in serious developments, and Iranian reactions have been intense. President Trump announced that the strikes will continue as long as necessary, which means a potential long-term conflict in the main oil-producing region.

The most impactful reality now is the closure of the Strait of Hormuz. This passage transmits more than 20% of global oil, so if there is a real disruption in supplies from there, the price of a barrel of oil today in dollars will experience strong upward pressure. During the Asian session, we saw a slight decline toward $70, but the currency quickly rose to $71.70–71.75. The high levels we have seen since June 2025 are still very close.

But there is another side to the equation. OPEC+ decided to increase production by 206,000 barrels, which acts as a downward factor on prices. Additionally, the US dollar is gaining strongly — the global flight to safe havens supports it, and expectations about Federal Reserve policy indicate it will continue to rise. A strong dollar means that the price of a barrel of oil today in dollars faces downward pressure because dollar-denominated commodities become more expensive for foreign buyers.

In fact, the real battle now is between two opposing forces — fears of supply disruptions push prices higher, while a strong dollar and increased production pull prices down. The price of a barrel of oil today in dollars reflects this current balance. The geopolitical situation will remain the key to any major movement from here.