I have noticed an exciting movement in gold over the past few weeks. The price has been fluctuating around the 5100-5200 USD range, and what truly deserves attention is how it has handled US political and trade pressures.

The story began when the Supreme Court canceled a large part of the previous customs duties, but the administration immediately started implementing a temporary 10% tariff with discussions about raising it to 15%. This contradiction created real confusion in the market — companies don’t know how to price their future costs, and investors are seeking safe havens. Gold has clearly benefited from this political fog.

From a technical perspective, what happened was very significant. In mid-February, we saw a sharp decline below 5050 USD, and it seemed that the upward trend had broken. But here comes the exciting part — this break turned out to be a false break. The price quickly rebounded above this level and traded firmly above it, confirming to me that sellers were not truly in control. It was a liquidity accumulation move before a new buying wave.

Now, the technical indicators tell a clear story. The MACD recorded a bullish crossover above the zero line, and the green bars are expanding — this is not just a temporary technical rebound but an actual acceleration in momentum. The Relative Strength Index is moving in the 60-65 range, which is very positive because it reflects strong buying dominance without entering the oversold territory.

The current price structure shows higher highs and higher lows — a classic pattern confirming full control by buyers. The new upward trend line connects the successive lows and reflects a clear acceleration in buying momentum.

Regarding forecasts, several factors support the bullish trend. Markets are pricing in three rate cuts this year according to the FedWatch tool, which means real yields may decline, providing strong support for gold. Additionally, the return of Chinese traders to the market after the holiday has added new liquidity, and China is one of the largest sources of demand for gold globally.

Geopolitical tensions also play a role. Statements about Iran and discussions regarding nuclear weapons increase risk levels in the Gulf, boosting safe-haven demand for gold as a protection tool against potential disruptions.

The levels I am watching now are: 5350, then 5500, then 5650 USD higher. On the support side, levels of 5080, 4950, and 4800 USD are important. But as long as the price remains firmly above 5080 with a clear close, any pullback toward these levels will be a new buying opportunity rather than a sign of weakness.

Major investment banks are talking about long-term targets around 5800-6000 USD in the medium term, with the possibility of reaching 6400 USD by the end of the year if expectations of rate cuts stabilize and geopolitical risks persist.

Of course, a defensive scenario exists — any strong inflation surprise or additional tightening in monetary policy could push the dollar higher and pressure gold toward 4850-4950 USD. But based on what I see now from technical and fundamental indicators, the bullish scenario appears much stronger.