The prediction market can even open trading based on whether the Federal Reserve Chair stays or leaves, with rules still tightly enforced—time zones are marked in Eastern Time, and Seer has been tracking this accurately.

The newly launched "When Will Powell Resign as Federal Reserve Chair" contract on Polymarket shows the highest probability between June 6–12, at 20%, and 18% for May 30–June 5. Settlement is based on the specified date range, and resignation requires Powell to actually no longer serve as chair; mere resignation, dismissal, or end of term does not count. Settlement only occurs during Powell's tenure as chair, with the time zone in Eastern Time. Odaily Seer continues to monitor the prediction market.