Recently, many people have been discussing gold, and I want to share some observations about the analysis of gold price trends. This gold bull market is actually far more than just inflation or a safe haven.

What truly drives gold prices is a deeper issue—the long-term skepticism of the global dollar credit system. The foreign exchange reserve freeze event in 2022 fundamentally shook the market’s confidence in sovereign assets’ safety. Since then, gold has shifted from being simply an inflation hedge to a comprehensive risk asset.

You can understand this by looking at central bank actions. According to data from the World Gold Council, in 2025, global central banks’ net gold purchases will exceed 1,200 tons, marking the fourth consecutive year of purchases over a thousand tons. More importantly, 76% of surveyed central banks say they will increase their gold holdings and reduce dollar reserves over the next five years. This is not short-term speculation but a structural adjustment at the government level.

Of course, short-term volatility factors are also obvious. Uncertainty in tariff policies, Fed rate cut expectations, geopolitical tensions—all are creating market fluctuations. But if you only look at these, you’ll get confused by the short-term ups and downs. The key is to understand which forces are lifting the floor of gold prices and which are just noise.

From the perspective of analyzing gold price trends, the current market has entered a state of “high-level oscillation but leaning upward.” As of early April, major institutions’ forecast ranges are an average of $4,800 to $5,200 by 2026, with year-end targets of $5,400 to $5,800. In an optimistic scenario, it could even reach $6,000 to $6,500. Goldman Sachs and JPMorgan Chase are both raising their expectations, all pointing in the same direction—central bank continued buying, rate cut expectations, and safe-haven demand.

But honestly, I don’t recommend blindly chasing the high. Gold’s volatility isn’t lower than stocks; the annual average amplitude is 19.4%. In 2025, due to policy expectation adjustments, it retraced over 10-15%, and earlier this year, there was a sharp correction of 18%. If you’re a beginner, try testing the waters with small capital—don’t put everything in at once.

If you’re an experienced short-term trader, the volatility around U.S. market data releases indeed offers many opportunities, but you must set strict stop-losses. If you’re a long-term investor, gold is indeed a good tool for portfolio allocation, but be prepared to endure a 20% or more correction. The key is to clarify whether you’re short-term, long-term, or strategic, and then decide how to enter.

My personal view is that the trend of central bank gold purchases has not truly stopped since it exploded in 2022, and it won’t suddenly disappear in 2026. Inflation is still there, debt pressures remain, and geopolitical tensions persist. The bottom of gold is getting higher and higher, with limited downside in bear markets, and the continuation of the bull market is actually very strong. But remember, the upward trend is never a straight line; volatility is normal. What you need is a system to monitor the market, not just follow news blindly.