【In a dilemma, how does Wosh balance inflation and market trends】Today's Highlights

NO.1 Wosh's Tendency
NO.1 Today's US stock market reaction to rate hike expectations

What is a rate hike?
A rate hike means higher deposit interest rates, so everyone deposits in banks, which is bearish for investments and stocks.
But does the wise man think so? Neither inflation nor rate hikes are desirable.

From a normal perspective, Lao Jin analyzes this matter. First, inflation must be suppressed, which depends on negotiations over the US-Iran war, prioritizing peace before development.

And Wosh's plan: 6-7-8 will definitely stay unchanged, no big moves, a 25bp hike is expected in December, then aggressive balance sheet reduction, and a rate cut again in 2027, with US one-year fixed deposits reaching 4.3%-4.5%.

【In summary】
· The root cause of difficult-to-control inflation lies in the Middle East: US-Iran negotiations are not smooth, oil prices remain high, inflation is prone to rebound, and rate hike expectations are hard to dispel.

· Wosh's "soft hawk" route: short-term no rate hike is to give the market "buffer," but balance sheet reduction + year-end rate hike are hard policies, high interest rates will become the norm.

· US stock style completely shifts: from "AI growth" to value, high dividends, energy, and finance, with growth stocks still under correction pressure.

· Key observation points:
1️⃣ June FOMC: Wosh's first appearance, is the tone hawkish or dovish?
2️⃣ Middle East situation: whether easing will determine oil prices and inflation levels;
3️⃣ December: whether there will be a 25bp hike, initiating a "rate hike + balance sheet reduction" dual-tight cycle.

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