The US-Iran negotiations are finally approaching the "drop the shoe" moment—

📍 Latest developments:
1. US officials say both sides are "optimistic" about resolving the dispute soon, and an agreement is very likely to be announced today (Tuesday)
2. Core of the agreement: Iran will reopen the Strait of Hormuz in 30 days, clear mines within 30 days; the US will unfreeze some Iranian assets and gradually relax sanctions
3. Iran's delegation appeared in Qatar on Monday, seen by the US as a "positive signal," but nuclear issues remain a point of disagreement—US demands Iran to suspend nuclear activities long-term, Iran firmly refuses
📍 Market reactions are already here:
1. Brent crude oil plummeted over 7%, hitting a one-month low
2. MSCI global index hit a record high, US stock futures rose over 0.9%, European stocks six consecutive gains
3. Offshore RMB approached 6.78 intraday, a three-year high
4. BTC fluctuated around 77k, briefly surged past 78k during the day
But there are signs of reversal: Iran emphasizes that even if an agreement is reached, the Strait of Hormuz will still be "fully managed" by Iran, not a return to pre-war "free passage." What Trump said and what Iran says are not the same thing.

💬 Discussion points:
1. After the agreement is officially implemented, the geopolitical risk premium disappears. Will BTC rise or fall in the short term? Diminished safe-haven demand vs. increased risk appetite, which has a greater influence?
2. Crude oil plunges → inflation expectations decline → Federal Reserve has more room to cut interest rates → good for BTC. Do you believe this transmission chain?
3. Is 78,000 the ceiling or the starting point? Can this wave push BTC to 80k?