I recently noticed that many people are wondering about the gold trajectory this year, especially after what happened in the first few months. The truth is, 2026 was a crazy year by all standards for the precious metal.

In January, we saw a very sharp rise that pushed gold to record levels that no one expected, nearly $5,600 per ounce. But the story didn't end there. After a few weeks, gold entered a very strong correction in March, losing about 11.8% in just one month. Now in April-May, the movement is calmer around $4,700-$4,800, but the big question on everyone's mind: will gold's price drop even more?

To answer this question, we need to understand what happened in 2025 first. Last year was truly exceptional; gold rose from around $3,000 initially to $4,550 by the year's end, a gain of about 70%. There was huge demand from central banks and investors, the dollar was weak, and inflation was high. All of this pushed gold higher.

In 2026, the situation is more complex. Gold started with very strong momentum, but now we notice the market has become more sensitive. It’s not just safe-haven demand driving the price; other factors have entered the game. The dollar's strength increased, U.S. bond yields rose, and interest rate expectations changed. All of this put pressure on gold.

Major analysts are giving different opinions. JPMorgan expects gold to reach $6,300 by the end of the year, UBS raised its forecast to $6,200 with a possibility of $7,200 if geopolitical tensions worsen, but Deutsche Bank is more cautious, predicting $6,000. Goldman Sachs sees $5,400. The big discrepancy among these forecasts reflects the real uncertainty in the market.

If we start talking about the factors moving gold, there are many. For example, inflation: in the last March, US inflation rose to 3.3% from 2.4%, meaning price pressures returned. This is a positive factor for gold because it preserves purchasing power. But on the other hand, the strength of the dollar is completely opposite. A strong dollar puts downward pressure on gold because gold is priced in dollars.

Federal Reserve policies are the main governing factor. If they raise interest rates, this reduces gold’s attractiveness. If they keep rates low or cut them, gold benefits. Central banks worldwide also continue to buy gold, especially from emerging countries, which supports prices.

As for investment demand via exchange-traded funds, it is very strong. People see gold as a safe haven during times of uncertainty, and current geopolitical conditions confirm this. But on another side, jewelry and industrial uses form a steady demand. India and China, for example, have huge jewelry demand.

Now, regarding whether gold’s price will fall, the answer depends on which scenario you imagine. If US interest rates stay high and the dollar remains strong, there could be downward pressure on prices. But if geopolitical tensions worsen or inflation rises further, gold could easily go above $6,000.

If you’re thinking of investing in gold, the first thing is to understand your goal. Are you buying to protect your money from inflation? Or for short-term trading? Or to diversify your portfolio? Each goal has a different strategy. If your goal is long-term, physical gold or ETFs are a safe choice. If you’re an active trader, CFDs give you more flexibility and the ability to profit from daily movements.

A very important point: don’t let your savings erode due to inflation. Bank interest often doesn’t cover inflation, so gold preserves purchasing power better. But you also need to monitor your portfolio regularly and avoid emotional reactions during volatility.

One last important point: gold does not generate fixed income like stocks or bonds. Investing in it is more about preserving value and hedging risks, not quick profits. So, be realistic in your expectations.

In summary, gold in 2026 remains at historically high levels despite the correction. Will it fall further? Possibly, but the fundamental demand drivers are still present. Investors are still fearful of uncertainty, and central banks are still buying. Therefore, there is an opportunity for investment, but with caution and clear planning.