Lately, I've been watching the trend of the Japanese yen, and honestly, it's quite complicated. The USD/JPY is fluctuating between 152 and 160, and last month it approached 160. Since the beginning of the year, it has weakened significantly. You ask if the yen will rise again? I think it's still difficult in the short term.

The reason the yen has been under pressure mainly involves several structural factors. First, the US-Japan interest rate differential is still widening, and the Bank of Japan's pace is indeed more cautious. Recently, everyone expected a rate hike by the end of April, but when Middle Eastern tensions flared up, Governor Ueda's stance immediately shifted, and ultimately, they chose to hold steady. Now, the market is eyeing June, with the probability of a rate hike rising to 76%, which could be a turning point.

Additionally, Japan's domestic fiscal pressure is significant. The new government has launched large-scale stimulus measures, aiming to boost the economy, but increased bond issuance and concerns over deficits have arisen. Markets worry about fiscal risks, leading to yen selling. Plus, with Middle Eastern energy issues, import costs have risen, and the trade deficit has widened, all continuing to pressure the yen downward.

From a fundamental perspective, Japan's economy isn't that impressive either. Domestic consumption remains weak, although wages have grown, real purchasing power is still under pressure. The central bank remains cautious about raising interest rates, fearing rapid hikes could harm the recovery. This creates a cycle—the weak yen trend is hard to break.

However, according to institutional forecasts, the short-term outlook still points to a weak consolidation. JPMorgan believes the yen could fall to 164 by year-end, and Société Générale projects it could dip to 160. Their logic is that global risk sentiment remains decent, arbitrage demand persists, and the Federal Reserve might be more hawkish than expected, all favoring the dollar.

But I personally think that in the long run, the yen will rebound. The key lies in structural reforms within Japan. As long as economic growth momentum genuinely improves, wages and prices can enter a healthy cycle, stabilizing the yen's fundamentals. Right now, it's about waiting for that shift. If the BOJ actually hikes rates in June and the US-Japan interest differential narrows, some arbitrage capital might flow back, giving the yen a chance to rebound.

To judge the yen's direction, I suggest focusing on four key points. First is CPI inflation data—Japan's inflation remains moderate, and if it continues to rise, the central bank will have reason to hike. Second are GDP and PMI indicators—Japan's economic growth performance among G7 countries remains relatively stable. Third is the BOJ's policies and Ueda's statements—his every word is now amplified and interpreted by the market. Lastly, international geopolitical developments—Fed moves, central bank policies worldwide all influence the yen's relative value, and the yen's safe-haven attribute means it often appreciates during crises.

Overall, in the short term, the yen remains in a weak pattern, but don't be too pessimistic. Those planning to travel abroad for consumption can buy in stages to meet future needs. If you want to profit from forex trading, you need to assess your risk tolerance carefully, preferably consult professionals, and implement good risk management to handle market volatility. The story of the yen isn't over; there may be a turning point ahead.