Lately, I've been paying close attention to the copper market and have realized that many people haven't yet recognized that we might be at the beginning of a super cycle.

First, the conclusion: 99% of copper is driven by industrial demand, unlike gold which is purely a hedge. Electric vehicles, AI data centers, green energy grids—these are the essential needs for the next decade, and copper is the lifeblood of these industries. Copper prices have risen over 40% by 2025; some say it's speculation, but in reality, it's just an imbalance of supply and demand.

I looked into historical data, and copper has experienced three major cycles in the past 100 years. During the electrification era of the 1900s, copper prices increased tenfold. Post-war reconstruction in the 1960s saw a fivefold increase. Urbanization in China in the 2000s pushed prices up another ten times. Now, many institutions believe that the fourth super cycle has already begun, with green energy and AI as the main drivers.

Why can this last so long? Simply put, it's a word: lag. Demand comes quickly—under a new policy, the world rushes to buy solar panels and chips—but supply? It takes an average of 15 to 20 years to open a new copper mine. Over the past decade, copper prices have been subdued, and mining companies have been reducing investments. Now that demand is exploding, new mines are still on paper. This mismatch—between demand and supply—is the strongest support.

Currently, copper prices are oscillating at high levels around $12,000 to $13,000 per ton. JP Morgan forecasts an average of $12,500 in 2026, while Goldman Sachs is more aggressive, suggesting it could reach $15,000 within 12 months. UBS estimates the supply gap could expand to over 400k tons. These are not just casual guesses but are based on real demand from green energy transformation and AI infrastructure.

But I want to emphasize that the super cycle isn't a straight line upward. During the 2008 financial crisis, copper prices halved. 20% to 40% corrections are normal, and these periods are actually good opportunities to add positions. Short-term fluctuations are influenced by the strength of the dollar, Fed interest rate policies, and China's economic stimulus measures.

Regarding the future trend of copper prices, my view is that the medium- to long-term upward trend remains unchanged, but short-term volatility is inevitable. An electric vehicle uses four times more copper than a traditional gasoline car, and each large AI data center consumes thousands of tons. The EU Green Deal and the US IRA are continuously pushing forward, and these demands are real. S&P Global predicts global copper demand will jump from the current 28 million tons to 42 million tons by 2040.

As for investment methods, futures have high barriers and are complex, not very suitable for beginners. CFDs are more flexible—they allow two-way trading, have no expiration date, and can be operated 24/7. They require less margin and enable participation in the market. Many platforms offer these products, and you can choose leverage according to your risk tolerance.

In summary, if the electrification and AI waves accelerate, structural demand for copper will persist. But be prepared—if the global economy slows down or alternative materials breakthrough, copper prices could also retreat. At this level, instead of fixating on short-term ups and downs, it's better to view it from a long-term perspective and seize the opportunities brought by green energy and AI.