The panic index has risen from 25 to 30, and market sentiment has shifted from "extreme panic" back to "panic." But at the same time, funding rates indicate that the market remains significantly bearish.

This is not a simple emotional recovery. The panic index combines volatility, trading volume, and social media activity, reflecting more of retail traders' immediate reactions; while funding rates are the real money costs of long and short positions in perpetual contracts, representing the true bets of leveraged traders.
The divergence between the two indicates one thing: retail traders have slightly eased their panic, but professional funds have not turned bullish. If the rebound relies solely on emotional recovery without positive funding rates to support it, its sustainability is questionable.
In the past few weeks, ETFs have continued to outflow, and large amounts of BTC on-chain are migrating to exchanges. Macro-wise, the US-Iran agreement remains unresolved, and interest rate expectations fluctuate. These structural pressures have not disappeared just because of a slight rebound in an index number.
For traders, the rebound in the panic index might be noise. What truly matters is when funding rates turn positive from negative territory and the inflection point of ETF outflows. Until then, every rally could be an opportunity for shorts to add positions.
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