The panic index has fallen to 25, plunging back into “extreme panic.” But if you only watch this number, you may miss more critical structural signals.

Over the past two weeks, Bitcoin ETFs have seen net outflows of $2.26 billion, as retail investors engage in panic selling. However, on-chain data shows that institutional addresses are increasing their holdings in the opposite direction. Coinbase’s premium index has been negative for 8 consecutive days, indicating weak purchasing power in the U.S., while buy orders in Asia and OTC channels are quietly absorbing the supply.
This divergence is not the first time it has appeared. In September 2024, when the panic index fell to 20, institutions also accumulated at low levels, and then Bitcoin rebounded more than 60% within two months. Currently, Bitcoin’s loss volume is approaching the critical historical bottom threshold—across the first two bear-market bottoms, the loss volume was 10.6 million coins, and for this cycle it corresponds to a price of about $60,000. The distribution of supply is shifting from retail investors to institutions, and signals of supply exhaustion are already flashing.
Downside risk: the macro environment remains the biggest variable. The Iran–U.S. conflict has pushed U.S. Treasury yields to 4.58%, and if it continues, interest expenses will increase by an additional several hundred billion dollars, potentially triggering tighter liquidity. In addition, CryptoQuant analysts note that Bitcoin’s structural bullish momentum has disappeared; until the Impulse indicator returns to the zero line, the rebound has not been confirmed.
Panic is the market’s emotional bottom, but the true bottom requires confirmation from the capital structure.
$btc #defi #etf #链上数据 #blockchain