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$BTC Go firmly long!
This morning, Trump personally posted to announce that the U.S.-Iran agreement is “basically reached,” the Strait of Hormuz is about to open, and the months-long geopolitical gloom has finally lifted. In the very same week, El Salvador kept adding 8 more Bitcoins without missing a beat, with its ongoing national dollar-cost averaging still underway. This kind of major-country diplomatic thaw combined with the real, hard “gold and silver” of a sovereign nation is the strongest bottom signal—and the final trump card of the bulls has already been played out. I directly increased my position to a $700,000 long, fully smashing into it!
1. The “peace bomb” personally dropped by Trump directly ends the market’s most troublesome tail risk. The agreement includes opening the strait; the U.S. side confirms that the negotiations are “making progress.” Iran’s cool response, instead, exposes the swapping of political leverage. The core logic behind the surge in oil prices over the past two months—pressure on risk assets—is now being priced in reverse, and crypto markets’ valuation of geopolitical risk will be corrected significantly. Once the agreement is officially signed, the suppressed buy orders will all rush back like water released from a gate.
2. On this critical timing, El Salvador continues its dollar-cost averaging—not to chase the trend, but to use the framework of the national balance sheet to provide sovereignty backing for Bitcoin. Current holdings have already exceeded 7,600 coins. This “nation-level bargain hunting” by a small country is now being secretly emulated by other countries. Under the U.S. ARMA Act, about 328,000 Bitcoins that will be seized are locked in for at least 20 years. “Consolidating supply” means the largest batch of potential sell orders in the market is permanently frozen, and the supply contraction tailwind will benefit for years.
3. Don’t forget MicroStrategy, the one that keeps sweeping up. Last week, it tossed out $2 billion to secure 24,000 Bitcoins, and its total holdings have broken above 840,000. BlackRock’s IBIT still holds about $64.3 billion worth of Bitcoin. These stubborn global long-side players are still going crazy adding positions—so what do the bears have to dump the price down with? After six hard pullbacks to $74,200, the price was dragged back again and again. Selling pressure is nearly exhausted, and the bears’ coffin lid can’t be shut anymore.
I lock the entire $700,000 long position—waiting for Trump’s agreement signing, El Salvador to keep dollar-cost averaging, and MicroStrategy to come in again with another round of buying, fully cashing in all three of the hardest bottom beliefs in this bear market!