Mars Finance News, May 23 — According to The Wall Street Journal, U.S. President Trump convened a national security team meeting on the same day, without making a formal decision on whether to launch a new military strike against Iran, but expressed willingness to give diplomatic negotiations "more time." Several U.S. officials stated that after briefing on relevant talks with Iran, Trump said he hopes to give diplomatic negotiations "more time," but reserves the option of military strikes if negotiations break down.
According to PolyBeats monitoring, on the prediction market Polymarket, the probability of "U.S.-Iran next round of diplomatic talks" before the end of May is 16%, and the probability before the end of June is 59%.

POLYMARKET-0.95%

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StardustUnderTheGlassDome

· 05-25 10:29

Is there a chance with a 16% probability at the end of May that reverse operations might work?

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BlackVelvetKey

· 05-23 16:53

The national security team’s meeting ended without a decision, which means nothing was decided.

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Half-UnderstoodZk

· 05-23 13:56

Retain military options = possible slap in the face at any time, crypto gambling dogs pay attention to positions

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ChaintraceAuntie

· 05-23 13:46

Military options are your trump card; revealing them now indicates you have no other cards left.

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TheMoonReflectsOnTheTranquil

· 05-23 13:41

59% will meet before June, but meeting ≠ agreement, don't rush to go all-in

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AvocadoYieldRate

· 05-23 13:36

Give diplomacy more time × Wait for oil prices to drop before taking action √

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GasFeesForNightRuns

· 05-23 13:35

Polymarket's jump from 16% to 59% indicates that the market is also betting on a diplomatic window period.

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LongBeacon

· 05-23 13:29

Polymarket data is more accurate than White House press releases, hilarious

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PeonyMemo

· 05-23 13:29

This stance feels too familiar; in 2018, it was the same script for North Korea.

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YieldConvexMirror

· 05-23 13:28

Old Tal, this is a typical case of first raising and then suppressing; if you don't get what you want at the negotiation table, you just flip the table.

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Trump is willing to give the US-Iran negotiations "more time"

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