On May 23rd, Trump held a national security team meeting and did not make a decision to launch a new round of military strikes against Iran, expressing willingness to give diplomatic negotiations more time, but still reserving the option of military action if talks break down. Several U.S. officials said he made this statement after hearing related briefings. Polymarket shows that the probability of the next round of U.S.-Iran diplomatic talks happening before the end of May is 16%, and before the end of June is 59%.

MarsBitNews

2026-05-23 13:24:09

Abstract generation in progress

Mars Finance News, May 23 — According to The Wall Street Journal, U.S. President Trump convened a national security team meeting on the same day, without making a formal decision on whether to launch a new military strike against Iran, but expressed willingness to give diplomatic negotiations "more time." Several U.S. officials stated that after briefing on relevant talks with Iran, Trump said he hopes to give diplomatic negotiations "more time," but reserves the option of military strikes if negotiations break down.
According to PolyBeats monitoring, on the prediction market Polymarket, the probability of "U.S.-Iran next round of diplomatic talks" before the end of May is 16%, and the probability before the end of June is 59%.

POLYMARKET-5.93%

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BlackVelvetKey

· 9h ago

The national security team’s meeting ended without a decision, which means nothing was decided.

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Half-UnderstoodZk

· 12h ago

Retain military options = possible slap in the face at any time, crypto gambling dogs pay attention to positions

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ChaintraceAuntie

· 12h ago

Military options are your trump card; revealing them now indicates you have no other cards left.

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TheMoonReflectsOnTheTranquil

· 12h ago

59% will meet before June, but meeting ≠ agreement, don't rush to go all-in

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AvocadoYieldRate

· 13h ago

Give diplomacy more time × Wait for oil prices to drop before taking action √

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GasFeesForNightRuns

· 13h ago

Polymarket's jump from 16% to 59% indicates that the market is also betting on a diplomatic window period.

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GateUser-44dde53b

· 13h ago

Polymarket data is more accurate than White House press releases, hilarious

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PeonyMemo

· 13h ago

This stance feels too familiar; in 2018, it was the same script for North Korea.

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GateUser-dcb4d0d5

· 13h ago

Old Tal, this is a typical case of first raising and then suppressing; if you don't get what you want at the negotiation table, you just flip the table.

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