Previously, whenever I saw stablecoin supply increasing and ETF net inflows rising, I would subconsciously think "off-chain money is coming in = prices will go up." Now that I've looked more into it, I realize that correlation doesn't necessarily mean causation: sometimes it's just market makers, hedging, cross-chain arbitrage changing shells, with money cycling within the system, not necessarily adding positions in risky assets. Especially after account abstraction makes entry points smoother, on-chain activity looks lively, but whether it's new money or old money happening more frequently, I wouldn't dare to confidently claim.

Additionally, the recent heated debates over privacy coins and the boundaries of compliance for mixing coins have made me more cautious about the term "capital flow": where the same money comes from, where it’s going, and whether it can exit, there are too many variables. Now I mostly treat these as a thermometer, not a steering wheel… for now, that's how it is.