#Polymarket每日热点

After SpaceX officially filed for an IPO, which do you think will go public first: Anthropic or OpenAI? My bet is on Anthropic, for the following reasons:

1. From an operational perspective, Anthropic's revenue growth has surpassed, and its enterprise customer conversion rate is superior

Anthropic's annualized revenue by May 2026 has reached $44 billion, with a gross profit margin exceeding 70%, and its cost efficiency is significantly better than the industry average.

In terms of enterprise customer penetration, 34.4% of American companies are paying for Anthropic, surpassing OpenAI's 32.3% for the first time, reflecting stronger B2B commercialization capabilities.

2. From the IPO process standpoint, Anthropic faces fewer obstacles and progresses more smoothly

1. Internal governance disagreements: OpenAI is caught in a power struggle

OpenAI CEO Sam Altman is pushing for an IPO in September, but CFO Sara Fryer strongly opposes it, believing the financial structure needs optimization.

Several core technical executives (such as co-founder Ilya Sutskever and former CTO Mira Murati) have left, with the probability of talent moving to Anthropic being eight times higher in the opposite direction, raising questions about team stability.

2. External risks: OpenAI is mired in legal and regulatory troubles

Although the Musk lawsuit has been temporarily dismissed, an appeal has been filed, and potential legal risks remain.

The governance structure of transitioning from a non-profit organization to a for-profit enterprise faces strict SEC scrutiny, whereas Anthropic has always operated as a commercial entity, incurring lower compliance costs.

Therefore, I believe Anthropic's eventual IPO may occur before OpenAI's. My betting strategy is: given that OpenAI might submit an IPO application as early as this week, increasing the likelihood of OpenAI, I plan to take advantage of Anthropic's lower probability now and bet on a bottom-fishing move!