This 9% gap indicates that the market has already priced in the war premium.

ME News reports that optimism over potential US-Iran negotiations and a ceasefire in Lebanon has suppressed oil prices and boosted the market, leading to a potential weekly increase in gold futures. Mitsubishi UFJ states that lower oil prices ease inflation concerns; however, although gold has rebounded, it remains about 9% below the level at the start of the conflict. Energy supply risks and damaged infrastructure could keep inflation uncertainty elevated.