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【Price Trend Analysis】
1. Candlestick Patterns:
* Daily Level: Recent prices have been continuously declining, with both highs and lows trending downward, indicating the market is in a clear downtrend. Large bearish candlesticks appeared on May 18 and 19, confirming strong bearish momentum.
* 4-Hour Level: The latest few candlesticks have small bodies with long lower shadows, such as the most recent candlestick (08:00 on May 20), showing some buying support around 2100-2110, but the rebound strength is limited, and it has not effectively broken through short-term resistance. Previously, multiple large bearish candlesticks accompanied by heavy declines, indicating heavy selling pressure from bears.
2. Technical Indicators:
* MACD: On the 4-hour level, DIF and DEA are both below the zero line, with DIF above DEA, and the MACD histogram is positive, indicating slight short-term rebound momentum, but overall still in a bearish market. The MACD has not formed a valid golden cross and is far from the zero line, suggesting the downtrend remains unchanged.
* RSI: The 4-hour RSI value is 33.38, close to the oversold zone (30), having previously touched 25.84, indicating the market is temporarily oversold and attempting a rebound. If RSI can stay above 30 and break upward, a stronger rebound may form.
* EMA: The 4-hour EMA7 (2116.46) is below EMA30 (2162.53) and EMA120 (2247.07), and all three EMAs are in a bearish alignment, with the price well below all moving averages, indicating a strong downtrend. EMA7 and EMA30 form short-term and medium-term resistance levels above the current price.
3. Volume:
* Daily Level: During the declines on May 18 and 19, volume was heavy, confirming strong selling pressure and that the downward trend is supported by volume.
* 4-Hour Level: During recent declines, especially on May 18 and 19, volume significantly increased, indicating large capital outflows. The current candlestick (08:00 on May 20) shows a notable decrease in volume, suggesting both bulls and bears are cautious around the current price, and the rebound lacks volume support.