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Last night during the US stock market opening, NVIDIA's stock price rose another 2.85%, reaching $227.08, setting a new all-time high. Against the backdrop of a very bullish US stock market, I am betting that NVIDIA (NVDA) will reach $232 by May 2026. My analysis is as follows:

1. US stock market and NVIDIA technical analysis

1. The US stock market is in a bull phase, with the Nasdaq continuously hitting new highs and maintaining a very steady upward trend, supported by steady advances above the MA5 and MA7 moving averages, with moderate volume increases and no signs of single-day explosive volume surges, indicating the market is still in a healthy upward phase. As the leading sector of this Nasdaq bull market, technology stocks still have the momentum to continue rising, and NVIDIA, as the industry leader, is expected to keep climbing.

2. NVIDIA stock technical analysis

Breakout upward trend

The stock price broke through the previous high of $225 and accelerated upward, opening with a jump of 2.08% (at $225.37) on May 13, then continued to rise to $227.08 during the trading session, forming an upward channel.

Volume support: Along with the market capitalization surpassing $5.5 trillion, trading volume significantly increased, reflecting continuous capital inflow.

Key indicator signals

RSI (Relative Strength Index): Currently at 72 (close to the overbought threshold of 70), indicating a short-term potential for a technical correction, but the trend remains intact.

Moving average system: The stock price has stabilized above the 5-day and 10-day moving averages (in the $220-$223 range), with short-term moving averages in a bullish alignment, providing strong support.

MACD: The fast and slow lines have experienced a golden cross and continue to diverge upward, with increasing red momentum bars, favoring the bulls.

2. NVIDIA performance and industry analysis

1. Strengthening of monopoly position in computing power

Global AI chip market share exceeds 80% (nearly 90% for high-end chips), with FY2026 revenue of $215.9 billion (up 65% YoY) and net profit of $120.1 billion (up 80% YoY), gross margin at 75%, confirming its irreplaceable role as a “computing infrastructure provider.”

High order visibility: Orders for Blackwell and Vera Rubin platforms extend to 2027, with no signs of demand slowdown (e.g., Meta purchasing millions of GPUs).

2. Technological iteration and ecological barriers

Next-generation AI chip Vera Rubin will undergo trial production in June and shipping in July, with doubled GPU packaging driving demand in the supply chain (PCB/light modules).

CUDA ecosystem covers 4 million developers, with migration costs for customers increasing by over 40%, forming a “digital encirclement.”

3. Geopolitical catalysts

Huang Renxun temporarily joined the Trump China visit delegation on May 12, with market expectations of easing US-China tech tensions, potentially benefiting his China operations (accounting for 9%-13% of revenue).

3. Target price forecast

Based on the above analysis, I believe NVIDIA’s May target range is $230-$250. This also references recent target prices from Wall Street: Bank of America ($320) and Wells Fargo ($315) are both bullish. At the current price of $227, the potential upside is about 10%-15%.