5.14 Bitcoin and Ethereum Market Analysis

I. Basic News

ETF Funds: Continuous net inflows for six consecutive weeks totaling over $3.4 billion, with BlackRock's IBIT still the main contributor, institutional buying providing solid support for prices.
​
Core Event: At 10:30 PM Beijing time tonight, the U.S. Senate Banking Committee will hold a formal review and vote on the "Digital Asset Market CLARITY Act," which is the most important legislative progress in U.S. crypto regulation history. The outcome will directly determine the short-term market direction.
​
Market bullish sentiment remains, but profit-taking pressure at high levels is increasing.

II. Bitcoin

1. Technical Analysis

Daily Level: High-level oscillation and decline, losing the $80k psychological level, short-term moving averages turning downward, MACD red bars shrinking, indicating weakening upward momentum; but medium-term moving averages still in a bullish arrangement, trend not fully reversed.
​
4-Hour Level: Formation of a sideways downtrend channel, price moving near the lower Bollinger Band, RSI around 35 in oversold territory, indicating a technical rebound correction is needed, but rebound space is limited.
​
2. Key Price Levels:

Support Levels: $78,700–$79,000 (intraday low + 21-day moving average), strong support at $78,000 (bulls' lifeline), medium-term strong support at $75,800 (100-day moving average)
​
Resistance Levels: $80,000–$80,500 (round number + short-term high-volume zone), strong resistance at $81,300 (24-hour high)

3. Intraday Trading Strategy

Light long positions on pullback to $78,700–$79,000, stop-loss at $78,200, target $80,000–$80,500
​
Short positions on rebound to $80,300–$80,800, stop-loss at $81,300, target $79,200–$78,800

III. Ethereum

1. News and Funds

Relatively weaker performance compared to BTC, funds continue to concentrate into leading assets, Bitcoin's market share rebounded to around 60%.
​
Ethereum spot ETF recorded a net inflow of +$611.3k on May 13, ending two days of net outflows.
​
Focus on the Pectra upgrade progress, expected to activate in June, which may bring short-term positive sentiment.

2. Technical Analysis

Daily Level: Weak oscillation pattern, trading below EMA30, MACD green bars shrinking, downward momentum weakening; Bollinger Bands narrowing to $2,240–$2,383, direction awaiting decision.
​
4-Hour Level: After breakdown and decline, consolidating at low levels, moving averages in a bearish arrangement, multiple rebounds blocked at the $2,300 level; short-term oversold, small rebound probability is high but limited in magnitude.
​
Key Price Levels:

Support Levels: $2,230–$2,240 (intraday low), strong support at $2,210, medium-term support at $2,180
​
Resistance Levels: $2,290–$2,300 (short-term resistance), strong resistance at $2,323 (24-hour high)

3. Intraday Trading Strategy

Light long positions on pullback to $2,230–$2,240, stop-loss at $2,200, target $2,280–$2,300
​
Short positions on rebound to $2,290–$2,310, stop-loss at $2,340, target $2,260–$2,240

IV. Summary and Risk Warning

Overall Outlook: BTC remains weak with high-level oscillation, ETH trending downward with relative weakness; intraday mainly range-bound. Tonight’s Senate bill vote at 10:30 PM is the key catalyst for market direction.
​
If the bill passes committee review: Market sentiment will significantly boost, BTC may quickly rebound above $82,000, ETH could challenge $2,350.
​
If the bill is delayed or not passed: Panic sentiment may rise, BTC could drop to $76,000, ETH testing support at $2,100.

Cryptocurrency markets are highly volatile, and regulatory policy changes may trigger sharp price fluctuations; above analysis is for reference only and does not constitute any investment advice.