Lately, I've been a bit obsessed with on-chain data, and it finally hit me: you think you're "watching the truth in real-time," but you're actually looking at a version assembled from nodes/RPCs/indexers... Which chain is queuing, which is caching, which is missing blocks, all make the transfers you see look like they just happened, but in reality, some time has passed.

On the macro side, they're talking about easing expectations, the US dollar index, and risk assets acting up together, so I dare not treat a few on-chain movements as divine instructions.
My biggest fear isn't losing money, but being led by these "late on-chain signals," and then rushing even more in the opposite direction.
For now, let's keep it simple: for important operations, check multiple sources, take a slower approach, leave some room in your positions, and anyway, just keep your heartbeat steady.