Review on May 12

The following operations are solely for my personal record use, with significant risks. Do not follow the trend blindly.

Today’s operations

Morning session

Rushed higher and reduced holdings in Jin Tanglang by 20% to 30% of positions

No operations in the afternoon

Sold remaining positions in Jin Tanglang after the decline

Bought in batches at the end of the session in Haixia Innovation

Current holdings

20% in Haixia Innovation

80% in cash

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Index sentiment

The index hit a new high of 4230 at the open, then started to dip, testing the five-day moving average for support, and gradually rebounded, closing at 4214, ending the streak of consecutive gains.

Currently, the index remains above the five-day moving average, with trading volume maintaining above 30 trillion yuan. Tomorrow, focus on the support of the moving averages.

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Data summary

1. Limit-up stocks: 57, the number of limit-ups has fallen back to the median. Compared to yesterday (92), the number of limit-ups has dropped significantly.

Limit-up trend: 100-99-97-92-57. After maintaining high levels for four consecutive days, the number of limit-ups has first fallen back to the median.

Indicator explanation: below 50 is low, 50-90 median, above 90 high.

2. Consecutive limit-up days: 17-19-18-19-17. The number of consecutive limit-ups remains near high levels.

Indicator explanation: below 10 is low, 10-20 median, above 20 high.

3. Limit-down stocks: 7, the number of limit-downs is at a high level, continuing to increase significantly compared to yesterday (3).

Limit-down trend: 2-4-1-3-7. The number of limit-downs remains low.

Indicator explanation: below 3 is low, 3-6 median, above 6 high.

4. Limit-up board sealing rate: 71%

Sealing rate trend: 77%-76%-85%-73%-71%. The sealing rate remains in the median range.

Indicator explanation: below 70% is low, 70%-80% median, above 80% high.

5. Number of rising and falling stocks: 1378:4048. The number of rising stocks is at a low, and the number of falling stocks has increased sharply.

Rising trend: 3889-3520-3637-3121-1378.

Indicator explanation: below 4000 is low, above 4000 is high.

6. Market height: 4-5-4-5-5, with a space height of 5, indicating strong pressure.

7. Data analysis

Data has decreased sharply, limit-up stocks nearly halved, the number of falling stocks exceeds 4000+, and limit-down stocks are at a high level. Short-term sentiment has clearly declined. However, overall control remains, with no obvious signs of a retreat trend.

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Market main line: None

Sub-line hot spots: None

Intraday hot spots: Power, semiconductors, optical communications, real estate

Leading stocks in consecutive limit-ups: Datang Power (5)

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Market nodes:

Five limit-up: Yuejian Nuclear Button + Dayang Node (continuing)

Four limit-up: High-level collective volume day + Jin Tanglang next-day limit cut (switching)

Two limit-up: High-volume day at high level + Dayang new high day (switching)

First limit-up: Fuda Alloy volume breakout and limit cut node (switching)

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Today’s consecutive limit-up break and counter: None

Yesterday’s consecutive limit-up break and counter:
HuaDian Liaoning Power (power, limit-up)

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Sentiment cycle analysis

Large cycle position: Rotation cycle

Small cycle position: Sentiment divergence day

Loss effect: Moderate

Cycle height: ————

Breakout dragon: Dapu Micro (suspected)

Potential breakout dragon: Dapu Micro

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Market observation

1. Risk aversion + grouping

Yesterday’s review mentioned that a big bullish day indicated risk aversion themes, and one side was wrong, so correction is expected today. My personal judgment was that risk aversion was unnecessary, and it was a theme mistake. But today’s trend directly proved me wrong, with the index continuing to decline and risk aversion strengthening.

On the other hand, grouping stocks (also a form of risk aversion) reached an extreme today. As the saying goes, prosperity breeds decline; tomorrow, divergence in grouping stocks is inevitable.

2. Breakout dragon

There has been no precedent for new stocks breaking out before, so it’s uncertain whether Dapu Micro is a breakout dragon.

Looking at the timing, LianLian will hold a meeting tomorrow, possibly with unexpected news, and the market is waiting for the news to land.

If combined with Dapu Micro’s breakout node, there’s a chance for a new concept sector to emerge.

Focus areas include Taiwan Strait, high-tech unblocking (such as Huawei), and other key sectors, which require news stimuli.

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Personal holdings

1. Jin Tanglang

The red opening exceeded expectations but showed weak upward momentum (characteristic of grouping stocks). To be safe, I reduced the position first. After the limit-up at the close, it broke the limit, so I cleared the remaining holdings.

Another reason for selling today was the anticipation of new concepts emerging, leading to the disintegration of grouping.

2. Haixia Innovation

Laid an early trap, just for the lottery.

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Yesterday’s trading plan review

No plan

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Tomorrow’s trading plan

Observe news-driven sectors and keep some positions ready for response.

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Disclaimer

The above targets are not recommendations; for review purposes only. Make your own trading decisions and bear the risks!

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