Macroeconomic Outlook for Next Week: Potential Peace Talks in US-Iran and Russia-Ukraine Conflicts, Walsh Officially Takes Over as Fed Chair

On May 10, significant signs of peace emerged in both the US-Iran and Russia-Ukraine conflicts this week, leading to a substantial easing of geopolitical risks. Next week, it will be crucial to monitor whether these two geopolitical conflicts can further de-escalate. Additionally, macroeconomic events will focus on the US April CPI data, with the following specifics: On Tuesday at 15:15, FOMC permanent voting member and New York Fed President Williams will participate in a panel discussion on monetary policy; on Tuesday at 20:15, the ADP employment change for the week ending April 25 will be released; on Tuesday at 20:30, the US April CPI data will be announced; on Wednesday at 04:30, API crude oil inventories for the week ending May 8 will be reported; on Wednesday at 20:30, the US April PPI year-on-year and month-on-month data will be released; on Friday at 05:30, Fed Governor Barr will give a speech; and on Friday at 21:15, the US April industrial production month-on-month data will be published. Lastly, next week will see significant personnel changes at the Fed, with incoming Chair Kevin Walsh expected to be confirmed by the Senate on Monday and officially taking over from Powell on May 15. In the stock market, as of this Friday, a new surge has driven the S&P 500 index to an 8% cumulative increase in 2026, continuing to rise on the foundation of double-digit returns over the past three years. The tech-heavy Nasdaq Composite index has risen nearly 13% year-to-date, with both indices reaching historic highs. Although the first quarter earnings season is nearing its end, corporate reports will remain a key driver of stock prices in the coming days.